China will win more medals than US this Olympics

Trip Start Jan 30, 2007
Trip End Dec 31, 2011

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Flag of China  ,
Tuesday, July 1, 2008

This is what some commentators are saying.
That China will get more medals than the US. The US have topped the medal table for the last three Olympics. But in Athens, China got 32 gold, and the US 36.
In the last three editions of the Games held in Atlanta, US (1996), Sydney, Australia (2000) and Athens, Greece (2004) the United States has won as many as 300 medals combined out of which 120 are Gold medals. Russia and the People's Republic of China are notable seconds winning a total of 242 and 172 medals respectively.

So what are they saying?

Study: China will win most medals for first time by topping U.S. by one

Associated Press

LONDON -- China should win one more medal than the United States at the Beijing Olympics -- 88 to 87 -- and top the overall table for the first time, according to a survey released Monday by accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers.

"As the host nation in Beijing and [with] an economy which has grown very strongly since 2004, the medal 'target' of 88 for China according to our model is much higher than its actual medal totals in Athens [63] or Sydney [59]," said John Hawksworth, the report's author.

China was third in overall medals at Athens 2004, behind first-place United States (102) and Russia (92). China was second in gold medals behind the U.S. in 2004 -- 32 to 36.

Hawksworth predicted Russia will drop to third place at Beijing with 79 medals overall, down 13, followed by Germany (43), Australia (41), Japan (34), France (30), Italy (29), Britain (28) and South Korea (27).

The report lists significant factors behind a country's performance at the Olympics since 1988, including population, average income level and being the host nation.

"The bottom line is that size matters, but it is not everything," Hawksworth said. "David can sometimes slay Goliath in the Olympic arena."

India remains a "significant underperformer" and is predicted to get six medals in Beijing, compared with one silver medal at Athens.

"The most plausible explanation is that, with the exception of [field] hockey, Indian sport tends to be focused on events that are not included in the Olympics, most importantly cricket," Hawksworth said.

Last year, Italian Olympic official Luciano Barra forecast the United States would beat China in both gold medals and overall medals won.
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